- Prior +1.9%
- HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected
- Prior +2.0%
- Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.5% prior
- Full report here
Everything as expected with limited market reaction. Destatis notes that energy prices are expected to be up 7.2% on the same month of the previous year. This is the first increase in energy prices since December 2023.
The market is pricing in 64% chance of an ECB rate hike in April and a total of 75 bps of tightening by year-end (three hikes in total). Judging by the recent ECB commentary, they seem inclined to look through the March spike in inflation and lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if the US-Iran war were to persist.
Germany CPI
