German states' CPI a mixed bag, ECB rate hike odds trimmed

  • The odds of a 25 bps rate hike are now down to ~52% on the day

And that is down from around ~61% earlier here. So far, the German states' CPI data is a bit of a mixed bag but at least it doesn't show a consistent upside surprise to the inflation numbers this month. North Rhine Westphalia (5.9% vs 5.8% prior) and Baden Wuerttemberg (7.0% vs 6.8% prior) are the ones with a slight beat. But that is offset by the readings in Bavaria (5.9% vs 6.1% prior) and Hesse (6.0% vs 6.1% prior).

Edit (0813 GMT): Brandenburg just came in with a 7.1% year-on-year reading in August, higher than the 6.7% reading in July. So, the balance is shifting ever so slightly towards an upside beat on the data. There's just Saxony left coming up in the next hour.

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