- Prior 51.2
The final estimate is a slight nudge up to the initial reading, so it at least sees back-to-back months of increase in French manufacturing activity at the start of 2026. That being said, the February reading is rather marginal as production expanded in the absence of new order growth. On the price front, inflationary pressures picked up across France's manufacturing sector as higher prices for metals and metal products drove a quicker rise in input costs.
HCOB notes that:
"The French manufacturing sector continues to struggle to generate meaningful momentum. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI declined slightly, but several underlying indicators offer cautious optimism. Production increased in the first two months of the year, a development that several surveyed firms attribute to improved conditions in the automotive and aerospace industries. Both sectors are likely to benefit in the coming months from deregulation and sustained public-sector demand.
"As long as incoming orders in France’s manufacturing sector remain in decline, it is premature to declare the downturn in the sector as over. That said, the index for order books is only marginally below the expansion threshold, and significantly better than the average level recorded from 2023 to 2025. However, export markets continue to provide little support, as foreign orders have fallen again since the start of the year, with February seeing weaker new business from Europe, Asia, South America, and parts of Africa.
"Against the backdrop of rising output and declining orders, inventories of finished goods increased in February. Conditions around purchasing and stocks of purchases also appear to be shifting. After three years of continuous destocking, manufacturing firms are once again expanding their holdings of purchases to meet higher production needs.
"Business expectations have stagnated in recent months, though they remain at a level clearly above that of previous years. Confidence among manufacturers therefore appears to be improving. This is partly driven by expectations of rising demand from the public sector."
