Headlines:
- EU reportedly excludes seven Russian banks from SWIFT
- Ukraine says it is not clear when more talks with Russia will take place
- Russia's Lavrov says third World War would be nuclear and destructive
- Kremlin says "our people will be there ready" for next round of talks
- Russia's biggest lender, Sberbank, leaves European market
- OPEC+ said to agree to raise oil output by 400k bpd in April
- ECB rate hike bets continue to evaporate on the week
- Eurozone February preliminary CPI +5.8% vs +5.4% y/y expected
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 25 February -0.7% vs -13.1% prior
- Germany February unemployment change -33k vs -25k expected
- UK February Nationwide house prices +1.7% vs +0.6% m/m expected
Markets:
- CAD leads, JPY lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
- US 10-year yields up 5.2 bps to 1.763%
- Gold down 0.9% to $1,924.90
- WTI up 5.6% to $109.25
- Bitcoin flat at $43,850
Russia-Ukraine war clouds continue to hang over markets but the doom and gloom isn't as overbearing for now. There's still some sense of pushing and pulling in the market but risk is leaning more positively in European trading today.
European indices opened slightly lower but are now holding light gains while S&P 500 futures turned around a drop of 0.6% to be up around 0.4% currently. That saw gold dip by 0.9% from $1,941 to $1,925 as bond yields also bounced a little. 10-year Treasury yield were down to around 1.71% earlier but are now up to 1.76%.
That kept some light pressure on the yen with USD/JPY moving up from 115.00 to 115.40 with commodity currencies pulling ahead with modest gains on the session. NZD/JPY is once again contesting the 78.00 mark and its 200-day moving average while we are seeing AUD/USD nearing its recent highs around 0.7284-90.
Elsewhere, oil was a standout performer on the day as prices ripped higher with Brent hitting a high just of $113 and WTI crude above $111 at one point during the session. Both are off their earlier highs but are still up nearly 6% with OPEC+ opting not to alleviate the pressure valve by sticking to its existing oil output policy.
