US Treasury Secretary Bessent: We are moving toward a vote today on big beautiful bill
- SNB's Zanetti: Negative interest rates are an option
- More from ECB's Kazaks: Any further rate cut would be small
- Eurozone June preliminary CPI +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y expected
- ECB's Vujcic: Face possibility of new inflation shocks
- UK June final manufacturing PMI 47.7 vs 47.7 prelim
- BoJ's Masu: Don't have any strong disagreement that underlying inflation still short of 2%
- Eurozone June final manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 49.4 prelim
- Germany June employment change 11k vs 15k expected
- Germany June final manufacturing PMI 49.0 vs 49.0 prelim
- France June final manufacturing PMI 48.1 vs 47.8 prelim
- ECB's Kazaks: Any further rate adjustments will be nothing big
- Italy June manufacturing PMI 48.4 vs 49.5 expected
- Switzerland June manufacturing PMI 49.6 vs 44.0 expected
- Spain June manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 50.5 expected
- ECB's Escriva: Symmetric 2% goal should remain ECB's primary guide
- BoE's Bailey: Have to watch for inflation persistence
- ECB's Wunsch: If we would have to move, it would be down
- ECB's de Guindos: Possibility of undershooting 2% target is quite limited
- ECB's Lane: ECB must stand ready to counter any deviation in CPI
- Switzerland May retail sales 0.0% vs +1.3% y/y prior
- ECB's Nagel: Policy is now in neutral zone
- UK June Nationwide house prices -0.8% vs +0.2% m/m expected
- Trump hits back at Musk as the feud continues
- FX option expiries for 1 July 10am New York cut
- US officials reportedly seeking leaner trade agreements ahead of 9 July deadline
It's been a session packed with central bank speakers as we have the annual ECB forum in Sintra. We haven't got anything new in terms of forward guidance, but one notable comment was made by ECB's de Guindos when he talked about the euro exchange rate. He said that 1.20 is something they could overlook, but anything more than that would be 'complicated'.
It looks like their pain threshold and might trigger a rate cut even if inflation doesn't surprise much on either side. Speaking of inflation, the Eurozone CPI came out in line with expectations across the board, so we haven't got much reaction in the markets. Moreover, the Euro Area consumer inflation expectations fell for both the 1-year and 3-years ahead. So far, so good for the ECB.
In the markets, the most notable mover was once again the US dollar as it continues to lose ground across the board. The moves against the Swiss Franc in particular have been quite aggressive. We had SNB's Zanetti today mentioning again negative rates as being an option. Unfortunately, they've been talking about interventions and negative rates for a long time but never walked the talk. Meanwhile, Swiss CPI continues to fall and the currency remains incredibly strong.
In the American session, we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the US Job Openings data coming up. The focus will likely be on the ISM report, especially on the prices component. Also note that we have Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey and BoJ Governor Ueda scheduled to speak at 13:30 GMT/09:30 ET. But given that they are all data dependent and they all spoke very recently, it's unlikely that they will say anything new.
