Headlines:
- Dollar's post-CPI advance under threat ahead of retail sales
- ECB's Lagarde: We will continue to follow a data-dependent approach
- ECB's Lagarde: The last thing I want is a hasty decision only for inflation to rise again
- ECB's de Cos: Inflation will be around 2% in 2025 to 2026
- UK preliminary Q4 GDP -0.3% vs -0.1% q/q expected
- UK December monthly GDP -0.1% vs -0.2% m/m expected
- European Commission slashes euro area 2024 growth forecast
- Eurozone December trade balance €16.8 billion vs €21.5 billion expected
- Spain January final CPI +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y prelim
- Switzerland January producer and import prices -0.5% vs -0.6% m/m prior
- IEA stays at odds with OPEC, says that oil demand growth is losing momentum
Markets:
- JPY and CHF lead, GBP lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
- US 10-year yields down 4.7 bps to 4.220%
- Gold up 0.3% to $1,997.42
- WTI crude down 0.7% to $76.07
- Bitcoin up 1.1% to $52,345
It was a bit more of a quiet session as markets are awaiting another round of key US data releases later today. The main highlight will be the retail sales data but we will also be getting the weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index at the same time.
In European trading, the dollar's post-CPI advance continues to look shaky with EUR/USD climbing up to 1.0740 while USD/JPY is testing the 150.00 mark again.
The pound is the laggard though after a softer-than-expected UK Q4 GDP report. GBP/USD eased from 1.2565 to 1.2540 levels before keeping around 1.2555 currently. EUR/GBP itself is up 0.2% to 0.8555 on the day.
The greenback's sluggish showing today also owes to a further retreat in Treasury yields. 10-year yields are now down to 4.22% and could fall back into the range of 3.80% to 4.20% if we get some poor data later on.
At the same time, equities are keeping the optimism from yesterday's rebound with European stocks and US futures both sitting higher for the time being.
Elsewhere, gold is also inching a little higher as buyers eye a push towards $2,000 again while Bitcoin continues to run higher above $52,000 currently. All eyes are on the US data coming up next.
