He said:
- Russia announces end of military drills in Crimea, shows troops leaving
- Belarus says no Russian soldiers, military equipment will stay after joint drills
- Kremlin says NATO is wrong to say there is no evidence of Russian forces withdrawal
- Russian envoy to EU reportedly says that there will be no escalation over Ukraine
She said:
- Western intelligence sources reportedly sees no credible signs of Russian de-escalation
- Ukraine president Zelenskiy says haven't seen any Russian withdrawal yet
- NATO says Russian forces always move back and forth, movement doesn't confirm withdrawal
- EU's von der Leyen: NATO has not seen sign of Russian troop reduction
Everything else:
- OPEC president: There is no immediate solution to high oil prices
- ECB's Kazaks: A rate hike is quite likely this year
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 11 February -5.4% vs -8.1% prior
- USTR says Phase One trade deal with China did not meaningfully address US concerns
- RBA's Debelle: A rate hike could happen in the next year but not definitely
- BOJ's Kuroda: No plan to change target band for 10-year JGB yields
- UK January CPI +5.5% vs +5.4% y/y expected
Markets:
- CAD leads, JPY lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
- US 10-year yields down 1.2 bps to 2.033%
- Gold flat at $1,853.14
- WTI up 1.5% to $93.42
- Bitcoin up 0.1% to $44,001
The session featured a host of headlines from Russia and the West in a he says, she says kind of episode.
Russia continues to argue that it is calling back troops after military exercises are done while Western allies are saying that there is no evidence that all of that means a Russian withdrawal.
If anything, the latest set of war of words might suggest that this whole issue with Russia and Ukraine could persist for many more days/weeks to come. And who is to say that it won't last for many more months as well.
Sieving through the headlines, the market mood remains more guarded for the most part with equities showing some early optimism only to keep lower currently. Meanwhile, the dollar is slightly on the softer side as changes among major currencies are fairly light.
Commodity currencies are holding on to slight gains with AUD/USD up 0.3% to 0.7173 but there's nothing overly exciting. USD/JPY is also up a little to around 115.70 on the day.
US retail sales and the FOMC meeting minutes release will be other key risk events to watch later today but expect the market mood to continue to latch on to any notable headlines from the whole Russia-Ukraine saga.
