Headlines:
- Long-end gilt yields come off the boil
- Pound extends climb on talk of a mini-budget U-turn
- UK PM spokesperson says Truss will not U-turn on economic policy
- Welcome to US CPI day
- Germany receives first direct gas deliveries from France to cope with energy crunch
- Germany September final CPI +10.0% vs +10.0% y/y prelim
- No timeline for exit of zero-Covid strategy, says senior Chinese official
Markets:
- GBP leads, CHF lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 1.1%
- US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 3.868%
- Gold up 0.3% to $1,677.43
- WTI crude up 0.4% to $87.64
- Bitcoin down 2.1% to $18,764
What started as a placeholder for the US CPI data release later today, turned into a clown fiesta - one that broader markets are happy about - as speculation about a sensational budget U-turn by the UK government came to light.
Gilts made an early move, quickly falling by 36 bps during the session to 4.53% initially. There were murmurs of somebody knowing something (h/t @ Ryan Paisey, PiQ on that) and it was spot on. The pound also recovered alongside broader market sentiment, with equities bouncing back from earlier losses.
GBP/USD climbed from 1.1060 to 1.1150 before extending that push to near 1.1300 and is just off the highs now. The dollar tilted lower amid the better risk mood with EUR/USD moving up from 0.9700 to 0.9750. Commodity currencies inched a little higher but the gains are nothing to shout about while USD/JPY is sticky around 146.70-80 levels.
On the latter moves, they seem more guarded as market players are also still waiting on the coming US CPI report at the bottom of the hour.
