- China's MIIT predicts a 5.7% y/y growth in industrial output for the January to December
- China's industrial profits decline four straight months, but at a slower rate
- Japan finance minister Kato - alarmed by FX moves, driven by speculators
- South Korea says it has a North Korean soldier in custody
- China November Industrial profit Year to Date (YTD) -4.7% y/y (prior -4.3%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1893 (vs. estimate at 7.2981)
- Japan inflation data and BoJ December summary raise expectations of a January rate hike
- BoJ December 2024 Summary of Opinions - 'Gradual increase in CPI'
- Japan Retail sales for November: +2.8% y/y (expected +1.6%)
- Japan Industrial Production for November (preliminary): -2.3% m/m (expected -3.4%)
- Japan data: October Unemployment rate 2.5% (expected 2.5%)
- Tokyo area December inflation data: Headline 3.0% y/y (expected 2.9%)
- Catch up - OPEC+ does not have "the bandwidth to prop prices much higher"
- Catch up - World Bank raised its 2024 China growth forecast to 4.9%, from 4.8% previously
- Catch up - Further supportive measures in store for China housing sector in 2025
- Catch up - China revises up 2023 GDP by 2.7% from previous estimate
- Trade ideas thread Friday, 27 December, 2024, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
In US time on Thursday USD/JPY traded to circa 158.09, its highest since mid-July this year. The pair pulled back toward 157.50 during the session here, responding to:
- December inflation in Tokyo accelerated for a second month, the government temporarily phased out utility subsidies;
- the ‘Summary of opinions’ from the Bank of Japan December meeting (when the bank maintained its policy rate at 0.25%) showed the policy board members remaining optimistic in its assessment that the economy and inflation are moving in line with its projections – amidst caveats of course – supporting market expectations for a near-term rate hike, perhaps as soon as the January 23-24, 2025 meeting.
JPY crosses slid also. EUR/JPY’s slide was cushioned somewhat by a drift down a few points for EUR/USD. There were no fresh notable news items for the euro.
From China today we had data showing that industrial profits extended their decline to a fourth straight month, dropping 7.3%. The flip side, if you prefer a brighter take, is that the fall was slower than the 10% drop in October. The YTD figure worsened, to -4.7% in January-November from -4.3% in the January-October period.
Regional equities rose, following a lead from higher Wall Street.
