- Goldman Sachs forecast no change to RBNZ policy tightening path ahead
- Bank of England speaker coming up on Monday 18 July 2022 - Saunders
- Morgan Stanley targeting a EUR/USD move towards 0.97
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 18 July 2022
- Shanghai to conduct mass COVID testing July 19-21 in 9 districts
- Chinese authorities moving to underpin troubled construction sector
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7447 (vs. estimate at 6.7458)
- US Treasury Yellen to meet South Korea's President Yoon - Russian oil price cap discussion
- Singapore non oil exports in June hit +3.7% n/n (vs. only 2.3% expected)
- ANZ in New Zealand forecast RBNZ cash rate to peak at 4.0% (was 3.5% peak )
- Shanghai report zero new COVID cases outside of quarantine
- A big week ahead from the Reserve Bank of Australia - governor and dep governor speaking
- China's Vice Premier is urging stronger steps be taken to boost employment
- Weekend - PBOC Governor Yi Gang promised more support for the economy
- New Zealand Q2 CPI 1.7% q/q (expected 1.5%)
- New Zealand data - services PMI for June up to 55.4 (prior 55.3)
- Weekend - US State Department energy security adviser confident OPEC will boost oil output
- China COVID highest new case count since May reported on the weekend.
- RBNZ has launched a new standing repo facility (rate is at the cash rate minus 15 bp)
- Wall Street Journal Fed leaker says FOMC likely to raise interest rates by 0.75% in July
- Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spoke on "crypto things" (direct quote!) on Sunday
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - Monday, 18 July 2022
- Recap of ForexLive trade idea for EURUSD and how to manage a profitable trade
- Headline - "Biden fails to secure major security, oil commitments at Arab summit"
- Newsquawk Week Ahead - Highlights: ECB, BoJ, UK/CA/NZ inflation data, UK debates
Early in the session here we had the main data event for the day, New Zealand inflation (for Q2 2022). Both q/q and y/y inflation came in hotter than expected, giving a lift to the NZD. ANZ were soon out with a note projecting a higher terminal Official Cash Rate (OCR), to 4.0% from 3.5%. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, followed with a note forecasting no change in the path ahead for rate hikes from the Bank. More on each of these calls in the points above.
NZD/USD has risen on the session, leading the pack of major FX that has also risen against the US dollar. USD/JPY tested back towards (but not quite to, as I post) 138.00.
Weekend headlines for the oil market included the news that US President Biden’s visit to the Middle East has not resulted in any direct promises to raise oil output. The Saudis, for example, said the decision will be up to OPEC+. The next meeting of the cartel is on August 3. Oil prices dribbled a little lower after reopening for the weeks but as I update have recovered.
WTI oil:
