- Federal Reserve officials speaking today include Logan, Barr and vice chair Jefferson
- ECB speakers coming up Monday include Knot, de Cos, de Guindos, and more.
- US earthquake - Seattle buildings swaying
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann speaking on inflation Monday 9 Oct.
- US (partial) market holiday on Monday, 9 October 2023 - Columbus Day
- US autoworkers to go on strike at Volvo Group-owned Mack Trucks
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1789 (vs. estimate at 7.2945)
- Monday morning trade in securities and derivatives has been cancelled in Hong Kong
- PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2945 – Reuters estimate
- Japan likely won't intervene to reverse yen downtrend - Japan ex-top FX diplomat
- Israel massing 100,000 troops in southern Israel to neutralize Hamas' military facilities
- Australia agreed to ensure a stable supply of energy resources such as LNG, coal to Japan
- Workers at Chevron's two LNG in Western Australia voted to restart strikes on Friday
- Gold update - higher after the Hamas weekend attack on Israel
- US markets open (Globex Sunday evening trade): S&P, NASDAQ down, oil up
- Japan has issued a tsunami advisory - Izu Island area (eastern Japan)
- Wall Street Journal reports that Iran helped plot the attack on Israel
- Airlines cancel flights into Tel Aviv, Isreal after Hamas murderous attacks on civilians
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 9 October 2023
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 9 October 2023 - USD higher
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: FOMC minutes, ECB minutes, US & China CPI and UK GDP
- Weekly Market Outlook (09-13 October)
- As the scope of Hamas attacks come into view, the Middle East future grows murky
- Saudia Arabia willing to boost oil production if prices are high to win US agreement
The horrific news over the weekend was that Hamas launched a massive attack against Israel from Gaza, way beyond anything seen in decades including:
over 3,000 missiles launched into Israel
a ground attack targeting civilians that killed more than 700 innocent people, including more than 200 kids at a music festival. A music festival.
military and civilian hostages taken, some already executed by the terrorists
As I post, the death toll due to the attack and its immediate aftermath is now over 1,100.
Markets responded in the early Monday hours, with only FX markets functioning, with a bid for the safe-haven US dollar and, to a lesser extent, JPY. More markets reopened in the following hours:
- oil is higher, jumping more than 4% as I update
- gold is up
- US Treasury futures rose, Japanese markets were out on a holiday today so cash Treasury trade was limited
- ‘risk’ traded lower – equities and equity index futures, and risk currencies such as AUD
As I update there have been partial retracements in markets but oil remains not too far from its session high. This is happening at a time with the US strategic petroleum reserve is at historically low levels.
There was little other news, but just noting:
- Japan, Taiwan and South Korea were closed for a holiday on Monday. Taiwan will remain closed on Tuesday.
- Morning trade on the Hong Kong Exchange was closed due to Typhoon Koinu. The typhoon has hit just a month after the city was paralyzed by record-breaking rainfall.
- Union workers at Volvo-owned Mack Trucks rejected a proposed five-year contract deal and will go on strike at 7 am on Monday, the United Auto Workers confirmed.
Reminder, it's a partial market holiday in the US today. The NYSE and Nasdaq will be open but the bond market will be closed.
