- Oil has fallen back from its gap higher at Monday's open - has the supply dynamic changed?
- Chinese authorities urgency to prop up the stock market should support AUD
- Confirmed - A HK court has ordered the liquidation of China Evergrande Group
- European Central Bank vice-president Luis de Guindos is speaking on Monday, 29 January
- China plans to incorporate 3 of its big managers of bad debts into sovereign wealth fund
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1097 (vs. estimate at 7.1785)
- China property developer Evergrande faces imminent liquidation
- More on Nomura forecasting 100bp of FOMC rate cuts this year - end QT also
- Singapore's central bank leaves monetary policy unchanged for a third straight time
- Reports that US military preparing to retaliate against drone attack in Jordan
- Gold has jumped higher alongside oil as Mid-East turmoil escalates
- Oil futures open higher after a weekend of Middle East escalation
- More China tightens short selling restrictions - bans lending of restricted shares
- Weekend China news - reports of further short selling restrictions to be imposed in March
- Federal Reserve's FOMC meet this week, Goldman Sachs expect on hold, with a cut in March
- New Zealand data: December trade balance shrinks to a much smaller deficit
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 29 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 29 January 2024
- Three US soldiers killed, many injured in drone attack in Jordan
- Trump floated possibility of 60% tariffs on Chinese goods - report
- ECB's Knot: We now have a credible prospect of 2% inflation in 2025
- Weekly Market Outlook (29-02 February)
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: FOMC, NFP, ISM Mfg PMI, BoE, EZ CPI and EZ GDP
It was a weekend of escalation in the Middle East with an attack in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border leaving three US service members dead and many more injured. Iran's mission to the United Nations denied Tehran’s involvement. It appears inevitable that there will be a US military response. This came quickly on the heels of the Houthi hit on a tanker in the Red Sea. The result was a gap higher opening for oil and gold in Sunday evening futures trade, and a little lower for US equity index futures. All of these gaps have been filled. Gold is, so far at least, the only one to have traded back towards its opening price.
Across major FX moves have been relatively subdued. It appears that ‘waiting on the FOMC’ has been adopted as an excuse to hold back on much activity already. The FOMC statement is not due until Wednesday afternoon, US time. AUD/USD ticked around 20 or points higher.
China continues to be a focus. There is more in the point above but in summary:
- there were further stock short sale restrictions announced over the weekend
- a Hong Kong court has ordered the liquidation of deeply troubled property development firm Evergrande. Trading in its shares was halted.
- China plans to merge three of its biggest ‘bad debt’ managers into its sovereign wealth fund
- Trump floated the possibility of 60% tariffs on Chinese goods
China’s mainland stock indexes fell while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore left its monetary policy unchanged, as expected.
