- JP Morgan likes China stocks - says headwinds shall pass over time
- China - Foxconn's Zhengzhou plant hit by COVID outbreak - losing workers, output
- Goldman Sachs on US stocks this week and "the only question you need to ask yourself"
- China Oct Manufacturing PMI 49.2 (expected 50.0) Services PMI 48.7 (expected 51.9)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1768 (vs. estimate at 7.1782)
- China - Macau locks down a casino resort
- Australian Private Sector Credit for September +0.7% m/m (expected 0.8%, prior 0.8%)
- PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNH reference rate at 7.1782 – Reuters estimate
- Australian private monthly inflation survey: 0.4% m/m (prior 0.5%) & 5.2% y/y (prior 5.0%)
- Japan data - Retail Sales for Sep. +1.1% m/m (expected +0.6%)
- Japan data - Preliminary Sep. Industrial production -1.6% m/m (expected -1.0%)
- Three down.Three to go. The RBA, BOE and Fed will be the next CBs to report policy changes
- China PMI due today (at 0100 GMT) - "struggling growth trajectory is not just about COVID"
- Lula da Silva wins Brazil’s Presidential elections defeating incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
- ICYMI - assassination attempt on US House Speaker Pelosi
- BOJ on Friday unchanged as expected - but the market expects a pivot in 12 months
- WSJ Fed insider suggests higher rates for longer - NQ, ES lower to open the new week
- Russia exited a deal allowing Ukraine grain shipments exports via the Black Sea
- "Chinese cities brace for wave of Foxconn workers from COVID-hit Zhengzhou"
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 31 October 2022
- ECB's Knot says is considering a +50 vs a +75bp rate hike at the December meeting
- Goldman Sachs say the Fed could hike to 5% by March 2023 (GS raise rate call by 25bp)
- WSJ Fed insider Timiraos suggests Fed could hold on to "Higher Interest Rates for Longer"
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 31 October 2022
- Week Ahead: US FOMC, jobs data and ISM; China PMI, Eurozone HICP
- Apple stock forecast for 2023: Going to $170
The Wall Street Journal had a piece over the weekend from Nick Timiraos, who has gained a reputation as a Federal Reserve ‘insider’. Timiraos wrote suggesting higher rates from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), rates that'll be held high for longer. Separately Goldman Sachs published a note raising their forecast for Fed rate hikes, to 5% by March ‘23.
In early trade the USD caught a bid, with a few gaps lower for FX against the dollar. The gaps have been filled by varying extents across the board.
USD/JPY has risen above 148.00 again.
There was plenty of data today, most notably the official PMIs from China for October. Both the Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction during that month, coming in worse than consensus expected. The FX impact was small, AUD/USD dipped a few pips but soon returned to where it had been.
In politics the incumbent Brazilian President has lost.
