- Bank of England Chief Economist, Huw Pill, Q&A session on Monday, 7 November 2022
- Chinese Trade Balance for October 85.15bn USD (expected 95.97bn, prior 84.74bn)
- Westpac expect a series of RBA rate rises through H1 2023, forecast AUD/USD end'23 to 0.72
- CBA says only one more RBA rate hike to come, +25bp in December. Cash rate peak 3.1%.
- WSJ reported Facebook parent Meta will cut thousands of jobs this week
- A district in Guangzhou has extended its lockdown (and Chinese shares are gaining)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2292 (vs. estimate at 7.2289)
- China's new COVID cases rising in latest reports. Zero policy will be here for some time.
- Fed speeches ahead for Monday, 7 November 2022 - Mester, Collins, Barkin
- Australian data: ANZ job ads (October) % m/m ... data release delayed until early December
- Goldman Sachs on China's COVID reopening - signs are there but its still many months away
- Bank of England officials speaking this week: Pill, Haskell, Ramsden, Tenreyo
- Apple has said that COVID restrictions in China are hurting iPhone production
- Oil has opened trade for the week with a gap lower on China affirming zero COVID policy
- Chinese state financial media criticizes rumours of end zero COVID - urges legal response
- 3 upside drivers for AUD into year-end. And 2 threats to the downside.
- UK media report 60bn GBP in tax hikes and spending cuts incoming
- ICYMI - China denied an end to COVID zero on Saturday. The US dollar is higher on Monday
- Heads up for US and Canada time zone changes over the weekend - daylight saving ends
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 7 November 2022
- US national-security adviser Sullivan in contact with a foreign-policy adviser to Putin
- Weekend China news - on Saturday health officials confirmed zero COVID still in place
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 07 November 2022
- The Fed and jobs are behind. Inflation is ahead.
- Week ahead preview: Highlights include US CPI and the Midterm elections
- The results of the US midterms might not be known for a month
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US nonfarm payroll strong, but USD tumbles lower.
On Saturday Chinese health authorities reiterated the zero COVID 'dynamic clearing' policy remains firmly cemented in place, contrary to the various reopening rumours that were flying around last week. The US dollar gapped higher in early Monday trade here with major FX losing ground. EUR, GBP, AUD and others all gapped down against the USD. There have been gap fills since, but to varying extents.
There were similar gaps lower for US equity index futures and oil when trade for the week reopened in the US on Sunday evening. Note you may need to check your local times for these markets as the US and Canada switched off daylight saving over the weekend.
In other news to open the week, UK Chancellor Hunt is said to be preparing a circa 60bn GBP tax hike and spending cut package. This will go some way towards addressing the dire fiscal position the UK has found itself in.
Back to China, the country’s daily COVID cases jumped to their highest in over six months, with widespread outbreaks across the nation. In markets there the People’s Bank of China ended its string of higher than expected yuan fixings, in place since August. This follows a rebound in the currency late last week and has raised expectations that the Bank is dialling back its support during the bout of yuan strength. October trade figures from China indicated falling exports and imports, in US dollar terms. In terms of the softening local currency, these did rise.
Chinese stocks were volatile. After opening lower stocks traded higher, tech and property shares notably strong. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gapped lower, like other ‘risk’ markets, but has since gone on a rapidly rising surge:
