- ANZ reiterates its end-2023 oil price target of $100/barrel
- Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Barkin
- European Central Bank Executive Board member Panetta is speaking Thursday on disinflation
- Morgan Stanley expect a final rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia in November
- Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno says watching FX moves closely
- China Caixin July Services PMI 54.1 (expected 52.5, prior 53.9)
- Bill Ackman is shorting bonds - sees a world of persistent circa 3% inflation
- Australia June exports -2% m/m (prior +4%) & Imports -4% m/m (prior +2%)
- Australian Q2 Retail Sales -0.5% q/q (prior -0.8%)
- Bank of Japan intervenes to buy an unlimited amount of 5 to 10 year JGBs
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1495 (vs. estimate at 7.1933)
- New Zealand data - ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell 2.6% m/m in July (prior -1.7%)
- Westpac says Reserve Bank of Australia now on hold until first rate cut in September 2024
- Chinese authorities are investigating suspicious commodity trades
- Japan Jibun S&P Global July Services PMI 53.8 (prior 54.0)
- The yield on the 10 year Japanese Government Bond has hit its highest since April 2014
- ICYMI - China considering even more limits on children's' use of smartphones, gaming
- The latest statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia is due on Friday
- Australian July Services PMI falls to 47.9 (prior 50.3)
- Bank of England Monetary Policy meeting preview: 25bp rate hike but it's a very close call
- Largest ever crude oil inventory draw an anomaly, oil price fell
- Brazil central bank cuts its benchmark rate by 50bp (vs. 25bp cut expected)
- Head of a large US shale firm forecasts oil as high as US$100 this year
- Nomura expect a +25bps rate hike from Bank of England today, but +50 remains on the table
- Bank of America no longer expect a US recession - upgrade their outlook to 'soft landing'
- A review of the earnings after the close
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Hot ADP data lifts the US dollar further
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 3 August 2023
- NASDAQ has its worst trading day since February 21
The focus of the data agenda today was China’s Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI for July, and it came in at a nice upside surprise. All this week the PMIs we’ve had from China for July have been a bit disappointing:
The Caixin Services PMI today though beat expectations easily and rose from June. At 54.1 the index remained above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction for the seventh month in a row.
Also on the data docket were retail sales for Q2 from Australia. These fell for the third quarter in a row and missed on the median estimate. Morgan Stanley downgraded Australia to underweight (and downgraded China and Taiwan also, to neutral).
News flow was very light with nothing of impact.
FX ranges were subdued with no notable moves.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 -1.4%
China’s Shanghai Composite -0.2%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.2%
South Korea’s KOSPI -0.7%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -0.5%
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The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decision is due today, the consensus is for a 25bp rate hike. there are previews above.
Due at 1100 GMT, which is 0700 US Eastern time. Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks half an hour later.
