- NY Fed President John Williams is speaking on Friday - June rate cut hints?
- Here is what to watch for an extreme surprise in Friday's US employment report
- China says it'll import 80mn tons of Australian coal this year - return to normal levels
- Biden SOTU: Full text of his speech - "historic job growth and small business growth"
- Biden SOTU: Inflation has dropped to 3%, the lowest in the world and is trending down
- Major FX little changed as US President Biden speaks at his State of the Union address
- Weekend plans? China is releasing February inflation data. You're welcome.
- Reminder - The US switches to daylight saving time this weekend
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0978 (vs. estimate at 7.1863)
- January household spending data in Japan shows a significant drop - more
- Japan fin min Suzuki says there's a risk rising interest rates could pressure Japan's debt
- PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1863 – Reuters estimate
- Japan wages are expected to see their biggest rise in 31 years
- Japan's current account grows more than expected in January
- Japan data - January Household Spending -6.3% y/y (expected -4.1%)
- Citi forecast Brent crude oil to average $75/barrel in 2024
- Deutsche Bank on what's drivng Bitcoin: "becoming increasingly institutionalised"
- Response to Fed Chair Powell testimony - Bank of America stick with June rate cut call
- ICYMI - ANZ see gold holding above $2000/oz
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB lowers inflation forecast but no hint at early cut
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 8 March, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Major FX traded in a rangebound fashion ahead of the US non-farm payroll data due later.
The yen continued to be a focus. USD/JPY dropped back to its Thursday lows circa 147.60 and just beneath. Expectations are for the best wage growth in three decades when annual wage talks with unions wrap up on March 13. Estimates centre on +3.9% in annual pay for union workers at major firms. This, in turn, has hopes up for a Bank of Japan policy pivot at the March meeting, on the 18th and 19th. There was data out today that must bring that into question, with household spending data for January falling by the most in 35 months and down for an 11th consecutive month. Japanese officials were quickly out with excuses including; one-off factors such as decreases in new car purchases, factory suspensions, lower energy bills due to warm weather, and base effects (higher spending in the same month last year from post-pandemic travel subsidies). I will note that the speed with which officials dismissed the data seems to point to political support for a BOJ tightening.
USD/JPY retraced back to above 148.10 briefly and is under 148.00 again as I post.
The central bank front was quiet. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams will speak during UK time (at 7am US Eastern time).
US President Joe Biden delivered a fiery State of the Union speech. His remarks on the economy were couched in political terms, focused on the good news: "the landing is and will be soft".
Its an active weekend coming up, with Chinese inflation data to be released on Saturday morning Beijing time (0130 GMT on Saturday, 9 March 2024, which is 2030 US Eastern time on Friday, 8 March 2024), followed by the US switching to daylight saving time on Sunday morning, local time. More on both of these in the points above.
