- RBNZ's Hawkesby says the Bank needs to do even more to lower inflation
- FT says that "China’s zero-Covid retreat sparks wealth management product sell-off"
- A 50bp FOMC rate hike today is the overwhelming consensus - but here's what comes next
- FTX collapse fallout - Canada bans crypto leverage, crypto margin trading
- CPI & FOMC: "still going to tighten monetary policy but ... moving in the right direction"
- Forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike by 25bp at each of the next 2 meetings
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9535 (vs. estimate at 6.9556)
- CPI data is not done yet - UK November inflation data due today - preview
- Report US Congress negotiators reach deal on government funding through September 30, 2023
- Morgan Stanely has raised its China GDP forecast for 2023 to 5.4% (from 5%)
- Banks face losses on loans to Musk to buy Twitter. (Well d'uh)
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand - inflation, expected inflation too high, needs to be reduced
- ADB further cuts its forecast for China economic growth for both 2022 and 2023
- New Zealand Treasury forecasts 3 quarters of a shrinking economy ahead
- BOJ Tankan shows business inflation expectations are 2% or above for the next 5 years
- Japan data: Core machinery orders (October) +5.4% m/m and +0.4% y/y
- JP Morgan see a Federal Reserve peak rate to 5% in Q1 next year
- China is preparing a US$143bn support package for its semiconductor industry (re US bans)
- Slower than expected rise in US CPI adds to the case for a sooner, lower terminal rate
- Goldman Sachs FOMC preview - expect a higher peak rate projection, and larger cuts in 2023
- New Zealand data: Q3 current account -10.2bn NZD (vs. -10bn expected)
- Reports that Chinese leaders delay key economic policy meeting due to COVID-19 surging
- Oil inventory survey shows large build vs. draw expected
- US stocks close higher but seems like a down day
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar sinks on another soft CPI report
Market movement was very subdued and lacklustre during the session here today. Market participants are, of course, awaiting the Federal Reserve statement at 1900 GMT. A 50bp Fed Funds rate hike is widely, nearly unanimously, expected. After that will come Federal Reserve System Chair Powell’s press conference.
With CPI at 7.1% (the latest result was published on Tuesday, US time) and Fed Funds at 4% (going to 4.5% later today) there is a ways to go still (higher rates) for the Fed. Note that in the previous 8 rate-hike cycles the rises did not stop until the Fed Funds Rate was above the CPI rate. And CPI ain’t gonna be under 4.5% any time soon.
News flow out of China was rapid-fire, including:
China is preparing a US$143bn support package for its semiconductor industry
the closed-door Central Economic Work Conference expected this week in Beijing has been delayed (COVID impact)
China's National Bureau of Statistics will cancel its November press conference scheduled for 10 am on Thursday. Economic data scheduled for then will be released though.
China is to offer a second COVID-19 booster to high-risk people
More on these in the points above.
On the central bank front we heard from RBNZ Governor Orr and deputy Hawkesby. Both indicated there are further rate hikes to come from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (the Bank next meets on February 22).
Offshore yuan tracked more or less sideways also:
