- UBS expect range-bound US eqty mkts that lack consistent direction until something breaks
- China expecting severe heat this summer, power shortage warning, supply chain disruption
- China April CPI 0.1% y/y (expected 0.4%) & PPI -3.6% y/y (expected -3.2%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9101 (vs. estimate at 6.9102)
- Australian inflation expectations (May) 5.0% (expected 5.0%, prior 4.6%)
- Previewing the Bank of England policy meeting: 3 scenarios and GBP/USD implications
- Goldman Sachs expect a BoE rate hike today, and plenty more until 5% terminal rate
- BoJ April Summary: uncertain global outlook means Bank must continue current easy policy
- Oil - United Arab Emirates’ main energy company says quick China demand rebound
- UK think tank says UK inflation to remain well above target - see a BoE rate hike today
- FX option expiries for Thursday, 11 May 2023 at the 10am New York cut
- ECB officials see interest-rate increases might need to continue in September
- New Zealand food price index for April +0.5% m/m (expected +0.4%)
- ANZ on a US April CPI inspired Fed pivot - NO
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers says wants to stabilize relationship with China
- Two major Japanese life insurers are planning to reduce their U.S. Treasury holdings
- ICTMI - Turkey has deferred payment to Russia of a US$600 million natural gas bill to 2024
- Deutsche Bank no longer thinks GBP is attractive. Also, expects a dovish BoE surprise.
- Goldman Sachs tip a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pause at the June meeting
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 10 May:US CPI doesn'y scare.USD/yields lower.Stocks higher
- ICYMI - Federal Reserve insider Timiraos says an FOMC pause over summer "appears likely"
- NZ finmin Robertson: New Zealand fiscal position remains strong and resilient
- Dow industrial average cannot stay in positive territory. S&P and Nasdaq close higher.
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 11 May 2023
Major FX markets remained rangebound here during the timezone. The volatility seen after the US April inflation report didn’t carry through to Asia.
Fresh news flow was very light indeed and non-impactful.
On the data front we had inflation data from China published. Consumer level prices (CPI) eased further in April, to their lowest y/y since February of 2021. Producer level prices (PPI) slumped deeper into deflation, showing their biggest decline since May 2020. It appears China will be exporting de/dis inflation for a while. Also, the low readings on inflation pave the way for more stimulus, both monetary and fiscal, should Chinese authorities want to go down that path.
On central bank news we had the Bank of Japan ‘Summary of Opinions’ from the most recent meeting in late April. Many board members saw the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose for the time being. Some added that they saw growing signs of progress towards sustainably achieving 2 per cent inflation. More in the bullet point on the Summary above.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 -0.2%
China’s Shanghai Composite 0%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.1%
South Korea’s KOSPI +0.4%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -0.2%
