- ICYMI - The EU has put forward a new draft text to revive the Iran nuclear deal
- Chinese spies tried to infiltrate the Fed -to get sensitive info and influence the Bank
- US Treas Sec Yellen spoke with UK fin min Zahawi - cap on Russia oil price discussed
- China'a overnight borrowing rate has dropped to its lowest since January 2021
- AUD/USD down a few tics after the Australian Q2 CPI results
- China Industrial Profit data for June +3.9% y/y (prior
- Australia: CPI 1.8% q/q (expected 1.8%) & Trimmed mean 1.5% q/q (expected 1.5%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7731 (vs. estimate at 6.7680)
- ICYMI - Crypto 'exchange' Kraken is under investigation by the US Treasury Department
- FOMC video preview: Watch for a subtle shift
- UK employers confidence drops back to pandemic lockdown lows
- UK data - July BRC Shop Price (inflation) index 4.4% y/y (prior 3.1%)
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows a larger than expected headline draw
- More on the Biden - Xi phone call coming up on Thursday, 28 July 2022
- FOMC preview: Powell to be wary of slowing growth, but will ramp rates much higher anyway
- FOMC statement due Wednesday, 27 July 2022 - preview
- Morgan Stanley on how the FOMC will give the US dollar a boost (spoiler - hawkish hike!)
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 27 July 2022
- Major US stock indices close lower
- White House says no plans for strategic petroleum reserve releases beyond 6-month period
- Visa, Texas Instruments stocks higher after earnings. Chipotle also trading higher.
- Alphabet earnings-per-share $1.21 vs. expected $1.29
- Microsoft earnings for Q4 2022 EPS come in at $2.23 vs $2.29
The focus during the time zone here today was on the Australian inflation data. We only get official inflation data four times a year from Australia (and New Zealand), and today’s was the info for Q2 of 2022. There is more detail in the bullets above but the summary is that while the y/y showed solid rises the q/q results were mainly as expected and are not running away to the topside. Markets were fearful that stronger than expected inflation growth would prompt a more aggressive cash rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia at their upcoming meeting next week (August 2, statement due at 0430 GMT that day). The CPI today looks to have locked in the long-expected 50bp rate hike and removed the likelihood of a +75bp rate hike.
Also on the data agenda were improved Industrial Profits (for June) from China as the country slowly recovers from coronavirus outbreaks and harsh restrictions.
Fresh news flow was light. Reports are that US President Biden and China’s President Xi will speak on Thursday. It appears any tariff discussions will take a back seat to talks on Taiwan and Ukraine.
Of course, all of this is a mere placeholder ahead of the big event due Wednesday US time, the FOMC rate hike (1800 GMT) and associated press conference from Chair Powell (1830 GMT). A +75bp decision is widely expected. Full preview is here:
AUD/USD lost some points after the CPI data, NZD/USD was dragged down a little alongside. GBP, EUR, CAD are all a touch better bid against the USD, albeit in not-large ranges. USD/JPY moved back above 137.
