- Bets on a February RBA rate cut are solidfying after the inflation data earlier
- FX option expiries for Wednesday, January 29, 2025, 10am New York cut
- Goldman Sachs expects 6 Bank of England interest rate cuts by mid-2026
- Euro may see a slight uptick if the European Central Bank is cautious this week
- Westpac changes its forecast to a February Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut
- OrderFlow Intel: 🤖💡AI-Powered Bitcoin Futures Analysis for Today
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers says worst of inflation is past
- Australian inflation data: RBA rate cut expectations rise higher
- AUD/USD has dropped after the better than expected Q4 inflation data from Australia
- Nasdaq Futures Analysis
- Australian Q4 2024 inflation headline 2.4% y/y (expected 2.5%)
- Australian inflation data due soon - RBA rate cut speculation for February meeting
- Reminder - China, Hong Kong and Singapore are all on holiday today
- BoJ December 2024 meeting minutes express caution - January brought change though
- Google reclassifies U.S. as ‘sensitive country’ alongside China, Russia
- Federal Reserve preview: Deutsche Bank says Fed to signal a March rate cut is unlikely
- One for the Tesla (TSLA) traders: Honda look at launching sub-$30,000 EV in North America
- Commerzbank raised its gold price forecast for the end of Q1 2025 to $2,700 (prior 2600)
- U.S. Navy bans use of DeepSeek AI - citing ‘security and ethical concerns’
- RBNZ's Conway says policy committee confident inflation will abate
- Trump will pay federal workers through to September 30 if they resign by February 6
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build less than expected
- The noob heading to the BOJ monetary policy board is a big supporter of higher rates
- Solid rebound for the broader indices today
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Tech bounces back ahead of the FOMC
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 29 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
It was a more subdued day in Asia today with no tariff talk like we had on Monday and Tuesday this week to spur outsized volatility.
The Bank of Japan published the minutes of its December 2024 meeting. Members expressed various shades of confidence in the outlook for inflation, wages, the economy, and monetary policy. But, for us here today on January 29 the meaning of it all was moot (having little or no practical relevance). After all, the Bank of Japan raised its short-term rates just last week, at its January 24 meeting.
From Australia, we had Q4 inflation data, which came in lower than in Q3, below market central estimates, and below Reserve Bank of Australia projections.
- headline inflation fell to 2.4%, just under the midpoint of the RBA’s 2 – 3% target band
- the trimmed mean, a measure of core, or underlying, inflation came in at 3.2% y/y, which while still above the top of the band was a 3-year low (0.5% y/y)
- a caveat to all this is that some of the inflation moderation was driven by government rebates on electricity and other subsidies, which may reverse once they expire
This was all encouraging and indeed has prompted a repricing of a Reserve Bank of Australia February RBA cut to around 90% now.
AUD/USD was marked lower on the data release and has seen a small retracement since.
Major FX, otherwise, traded in a subdued fashion.
China, Singapore and Hong Kong were all on holiday today for Lunar New Year. Happy New Year to those celebrating!
