- Goldman Sachs is forecasting the first ECB rate cut in Q2 of 2024 (vs. Q3 prior forecast)
- OPEC+ oil output, "lack of clarity around the new agreement" sparks oil market uncertainty
- Federal Reserve Officials speak Friday ahead of the blackout period pre-FOMC Meeting
- Israel and Hamas have agreed to extend their truce for another day
- Japan's largest trade union says formally agreed on 2024 pay hike demand of 5% or more
- ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of Spain´s governor de Cos speak on Friday
- China November Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 (vs. expected at 49.8)
- Goldman Sachs comments on risks to Brent forecast; solid demand, US supply slow down
- South Korea to address "market inefficiencies" in its crackdown on short selling
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1104 (vs. estimate at 7.1458)
- Oil: US modest 2.7 million barrel purchase for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
- Japan data: Final November Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 (prior 48.7)
- More on JP Morgan's bear S&P 500 forecast: Global growth deceleration, policy volatility
- Japan data: Q3 Capital expenditure +3.4% y/y (expected +3.4%, prior +4.5%)
- Japan data: October Unemployment rate 2.5% (expected 2.6%)
- UBS predicts boost in Australian dollar amidst policy changes in US, China, and Australia
- Heads up: Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaking twice on Friday, fireside chat, roundtable
- Confusion and disobedience: Angola's bold move challenges OPEC+
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: OPEC cut fails to impress the oil market
- Australian November Manufacturing PMI 47.7 (prior 48.2)
- Coinbase Rose 75% Over the Past Month, Outpacing Bitcoin's Performance
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 1 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
The Australian and New Zealand dollars rallied early against the USD, reaching highs towards 0.6630 and above 0.6190 respectively. As I update both have given back all their gains that left each barely changed on the session (NZD/USD is up a few tics net).
It’s a similar pattern for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
USD/JPY dropped back under 148.00 but as I update its circa 148.10 again. From Japan today came strong Q3 corporate capex, sales and profits data. The manufacturing PMI, though, slipped deeper into contraction. As did the Australian manufacturing PMI. The surprise came from China. Yesterday we had worrying misses for the official PMIs, with manufacturing also slipping deeper into contraction. That story flipped today with the privately surveyed Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November comprehensively beating estimates to bounce back into expansion at 50.7.
- the new order index hit its highest for the second half of 2023
- more concerning, overseas demand continued to fall deeper into the contraction zone
Back to Japan and the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (JTUC, more commonly known as Rengo) says it agreed to demand a 5% or more wage hike in pay negotiations with employers coming up in March 2024, the "spring labor offensive" or "shunto" in Japanese.
