The lead into the Asia session:
- RBA March 2022 policy decision - no change, as expected
- JPMorgan expands crypto footprint with investment in blockchain firm
- Report - Frustrated Putin may order escalation of violence in Ukraine, U.S. officials say
- Toyota in Japan to resume output on Wednesday
- Mastercard has blocked multiple financial institutions from the Mastercard payment network
- ICYMI - Turkey has cut off access to the Black Sea
- US' Rubio on Ukraine - Russia is "going to have to destroy..some cities"
- Australian Q4 2021 GDP data due Wednesday 21 March - forecast upgrade
- China Caixin manufacturing PMI for February 50.4 (expected 49.1)
- Oil - OPEC+ meets Wednesday this week. No change to output policy is expected
- China official February manufacturing PMI 50.2 (expected 49.9 )
- Russia says the US declaration of 12 Russian diplomats as persona non grata hostile attack
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.3014 (vs. estimate at 6.2991)
- Toyota suspends operations at all domestic plants following a cyber attack on a supplier
- Japan February final manufacturing PMI 52.7
- Australian housing finance data for January: Owner occupied and investment both rose
- Australian data - Q4 net exports will subtract 0.2% from GDP
- Satellite images show Russian miliatry convoy north of Kyiv is longer than 17 miles
- South Korea February exports per working day +17.6% y/y
- Oil - Iran says a deal is close
- ICYMI - The US expelled 12 Russian diplomats
- US Treasury says the US financial system continues to function in an orderly manner
- Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision today - no change expected
- ICYMI - share trading will be closed again in Russia today - Tuesday 01 March 2022
- Australia weekly consumer confidence drops to 99.2
- Australian manufacturing PMI for February 57.0 (vs.55.1 in January)
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 01 March 2022
- Australian Manufacturing PMI for February 53.2 (vs. prior 48.4)
The session was characterised by some small range US dollar strength. Yen, CHF, EUR, NZDAUD, CAD all fell to varying (small) degrees. Cable is down a few tics also.
The news flow was once again dominated by Ukraine, although the veracity of reports is getting more difficult to verify. There are plenty of opinion pieces about how Russia is losing and even if they ‘win’ they’ll lose due to sanctions and being viewed as a pariah state.
The data schedule was packed, although its not the focus. Chinese PMIs for February that were reported today showed resilience. Australian ‘net exports’ came in better than expected which should, alongside the partials already announced, help Q4 GDP (due tomorrow) turn in a solid result (indeed, Westpac revised their forecast higher today).
Speaking of Australia, we had the March policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia today. Policy was left unchanged and there is nothing in Governor Lowe’s statement to indicate any acceleration of tightening expectations. The war in Ukraine was noted as a significant new source of uncertainty.
Bitcoin had a spurt higher early and has since tracked sideways.
