How we got here - Monday America's wrap leading into Tuesday Asia session:
Asia:
- Ukraine repeats its border will remain unchanged regardless of Russian announcements
- US to announce new sanctions on Russia on Tuesday, will co-ordinate with allies
- UN Security Council pulic meeting on now - awaiting anything substantive
- Columns of military vehicles including tanks seen early Tuesday on outskirts of Donetsk
- Ukraine's President says borders will stay as they are no matter what Russia says
- Reports circulating of what the UK sanctions on Russia will include
- China's finance minister says will strengthen cooperation between fiscal & monetary policy
- US has ordered all remaining State Department personnel out of Ukraine.
- US equity index futures open for evening trade - sharply lower
- US, UK, France request a UN Security Council meeting Monday evening US time on Ukraine
- UK government to hold a COBRA meeting tomorrow at 0630
- Russia's agreement with separatist leaders includes new military bases
- US Blinken says Putin recognition of Donetsk, Luhansk, requires a swift and firm response
- Putin has order a 'peacekeeping' operation in eastern Ukraine's breakaway regions
- (Unconfirmed) Reports of movement of Russian military into Donbas
Other:
- NZD traders - heads up for the RBNZ policy meeting Wednesday NZ time
- Federal Reserve speakers coming up on Tuesday 22 February 2022
- Bitcoin losing further ground, hitting US$36.5K
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.3487 (vs. estimate at 6.3448)
- RBA's Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) speech - full text
- China has banned imports of poultry, poultry products from Canada
- Oil giant Saudi Aramco is in talks about further investment into China
- Japan PPI Services for January 1.2% y/y (vs. expected 0.7%)
- Australia - ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index -1.4% to 101.8
- Bitcoin drops under US$37.5K
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 22 February 2022
The lead in to the Asia session was a US & Canada “holiday” jam-packed with geo-political developments:
As that session drew to a close there was no let up in Eastern European developments, notably reports of Russian military movements into Ukraine along with responses from Ukraine and Western nations (see bullets above, but in a nutshell sanctions are being drawn up and a United Nations Security Council meeting was called – and is presently underway, albeit in a small break as I post).
“Risk” assets slipped. US equity index futures were slammed lower upon the Globex reopen (& regional equities lower here as they began trade). Across FX there were losses for currencies against the USD and yen. A quick scan across your charts, though, will show it was not one-way FX traffic with bounces for AUD and NZD before renewed subsidence (not approaching the earlier lows though). EUR and GBP are near their session lows as I post.
Gold surged. Oil is not a lot changed on net after a move up that has retraced somewhat.
Tuesday will bring the announcement of sanctions on Russia from Western allied nations. It remains to be seen how harsh these will be, an official out of the US said earlier that Russian military moves do not necessarily constitute a new invasion (see bullets above) and thus a full suite of sanctions is not yet justified. We’ll see. Russian oil (and gas) exports are probably sacrosanct. And SWIFT banishment has been ruled out.
Cryptos lost ground. Bitcoin has hit lows under US$36,500.
AUD/JPY as the FX risk barometer:
