- EUR/USD still on the slide
- Gold climbs to a one-year high but you have to consider Russia's reserves
- Rubio says this is a full scale & comprehensive military assault on Ukraine
- Ukraine says that Kyiv is under attack from cruise and ballistic missiles.
- Yen begins to pick up a bid on reports of cruise and ballistic missile strikes
- White House confirms US President Biden will speak Thursday afternoon Washington time
- Marco Rubio update: Says Russian airborne attempting to take Kiev airport
- Full text of statement from Biden after Ukraine attacked
- US President Biden promises "further consequences" for Russia
- Reports of explosions throughout Ukraine. Brent breaks $100
- NATO confirms officially that an invasion of Ukraine has begun
- The FX market is shockingly calm, given the stakes: Explosions in Kiev reported
- Bitcoin below US$36K
- Risk FX, assets lose more ground on Putin announcement of military operations into Ukraine
- Putin has announced a Special Military Operation
- The Emergency meeting of the UN Security Council begins
- US Senator says The Russian invasion of Ukraine is now underway
- Ukrainian airspace is closed to civil aircraft
- Russian military leaders have gone to command center, US official says
- Air traffic monitor has increased its risk level to "do not fly" over all of Ukraine
- Some unconfirmed reports of rocket attacks in south-eastern Ukraine (near Mariupol)
- 'Risk' FX, assets fall further - speculation of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine
- More from Blinken on Russia to invade Uklraine 'tonight' - adds a caveat
- US Secretary of State Blinken believes Russia will invade Ukraine before the night is over
- G7 leaders will meet Thursday 24 February 2022 on Ukraine - Russia
- UN Security Council to hold emergency session on Ukraine Wednesday night
- Ukraine capital Kyiv has declared a State of Emergency
- Russia has closed all of northeast Ukraine border region to civil aircraft
- Ukraine's president Zelensky says Putin did not respond to phone call request today
- Senior EU official cautions Russia to refrain from further escalation
- Ukraine - Dnipro International Airport will be closed until 7am
- Ukraine has requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council
The lead in to the Asia session:
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Stocks continue tumble as Russia set to invade
Those pointers to ‘Russia set to invade’ continued throughout the Asia session right up until Russia did indeed invade Ukraine. You can scan the headlines above and see the signs building. There was a closure of airspace to civil aircraft in eastern Ukraine. That soon extended across the entire country. There were multiple reports of Russian military movements. US Sec State narrowed down his forecast for a Russian invasion to ‘tonight’ (he soon hedged that, but the cat was out of the bag). About an hour before Putin launched the war U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, Vice Chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence said hostilities were under way. Rubio was, of course, soon proved correct and followed up with more information on the extent of the war. Putin said it was a ‘military operation’ into the Donbas region but this was soon shown to be a war lie as major cities elsewhere in the country, including Kyiv came under attack.
Markets moved relatively slowly at first. ‘Risk’ slid and the USD gained ahead of the beginning of war as the signs built and the moves continued, still slowly, once the invasion began. Since then the moves have accelerated:
- equities smashed lower
- USD higher
- USTs higher
- yen higher
- oil higher
- gold soared
- Bitcoin and the crypto complex dropped
Other (Fedspeak, Australia data, Kuroda comments etc.)
- Fed's Daly (still going!) - Need more urgency on moving rates higher, likes 0.25% in March
- Barclays says remain bullish on USD/JPY
- Australian Private Capital Expenditure (capex) headline 1.1% q/q (vs. expected 2.6%)
- Australian average weekly earnings data is out (its not very useful)
- Goldman Sachs says geopolitics will not stop the Fed from hiking
- Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda says no plan for an early modification of easy policy
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.3280 (vs. estimate at 6.3291)
- Japan is considering the additional release of oil reserves
- Unconfirmed reports that all Russian armed forces have all been put on high alert
- More again from Fed's Daly - Policy is too accommodating
- More from Fed's Daly - 4 hikes is my preference, but most likely it'll be more
Gold:
