- UK Times on 400 Russian mercenaries in Kyiv - orders to assassinate President Zelensky
- The UK will require names for all anonymous buyers of real estate over the past 20 years
- New Zealand to accelerate border repoing - phase 2 starts March 2 (instead of mid-March)
- Goldman Sachs are adding in even more Federal Reserve rate hikes to their forecasts
- More on Belarus to join Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Monday 28 February 2022
- US President Biden will met Monday with leaders of NATO, the EU, UK and others.
- G7 finance ministers will hold a meeting on Tuesday 1 March
- China's national parliament's yearly meeting begins this week
- Putin has put his nuclear forces in a “special regime of combat duty,” - Explainer
- Weekend - Germany to build two LNG terminals to reduce Russian gas dependence:
- Citi have bumped up their oil price forecast, still look for 'well supplied' oil in H2
- "Exclusions from SWIFT will lead to ... similar to 2020" - Fed to step in
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.3222 (vs. estimate at 6.3196)
- Japan PM Kishida says need to move quickly to freeze Russian assets
- Google is suspending some features of Google Maps for the safety of civilians in Ukraine.
- Oil - Goldman Sachs forecasting Brent to US$115 in one month
- Australian private sector credit for January +0.6% m/m
- ICYMI - Norway's $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund will divest its Russian assets
- Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation for February 3.5% y/y (vs. prior 3.0%)
- Japanese authorities will meet Monday 28 February 2022 to discuss market volatility
- NZ data - Business confidence (February): -51.8% (prior -23.2%)
- Ukraine's government has raised over US$10 million in cryptocurrency donations
- Japan data - retail sales (January) and industrial production (January, preliminary)
- A Belarus referendum has voted to allow Russian nuclear weapons to be based in the country
- ECB says Sber Bank Europe is failing or likely to fail
- Gold back above USD1900 in Sunday evening (US) trade
- RBNZ's Ha sys too early to say impact of Ukraine on RBNZ monetary policy
- Non-financial related steps from the EU over the weekend
- Ukraine says 11 Russian troop transport ships are inbound to Odessa
- USD/JPY has rallied ...... USD/RUB: "Hold my beer".
- Russian central bank tries to halt foreigners selling Russian securites
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 28 February 2022
- China voted against convening the United Nations General Assembly
- Saudi stresses keenness on stability oil markets, commitment to OPEC+ agreement
- BP to Exit Rosneft stake
- Oil - Russian diplomat says expects an Iran deal within a week
- ICYMI - Weekend news of the removal of some Russian banks from SWIFT (and more)
- US and France both advise their citizens to leave Russia
- EU countries will provide Ukraine with fighter jets. Brussels funding.
- United Nations General Assembly meeting will be held on Monday
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 28 February 2022
- The escalation of Russian sactions and rhetoric doesn't bode well for Monday's market
- EU, US & allies have agreed to cut off a number of Russian banks from Swift
- More on the potential removal of Russia from SWIFT
- Momentum grows to remove Russia from SWIFT
The weekend news was of further escalation of hostilities in Ukraine, most notably for Putin dragging a nuclear option onto the table, certain Russian banks being removed from SWIFT and the EU banning dealings with the Russian central bank (effectively freezing their assets). There was more, detailed in the bullets above.
A cross FX we saw a huge jump for the USD in illiquid early Monday trade. There were gaps lower for:
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD
and higher for
yen
CHF
Early on the USD/JPY and USD/CHF gaps quickly closed while as I post none of the currencies listed above have closed any gap. There have been some retracements but not for USD/CAD, its continued to tick higher. This is despite oil rocketing higher.
When US Sunday evening futures trade commenced US equity index futures were slammed lower and gold higher.
Bitcoin and crypot more generally is lower also,
For the ruble traders, RUB collapsed (further) in the early hours, towards 120 for USD/RUB. RUB nearly 30% lower than its late Friday level.
EUR/USD (if you are new to all this, that huge candle lower is actually the 'gap' ... euro did not trade all the way lower in 5 minutes, it was marked down very early here in Asia):
