- Fed's Bostic says Ukraine war is increasing uncertainty, a source of risk for demand
- The city of Xuzhou in China has entered a three-day lockdown starting Wednesday.
- EUR/USD - heads up for large option strikes in play 1.1000 to 1.1100
- China's next 'crackdown' is on live-streaming
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.3566 (vs. estimate at 6.3478)
- USD/JPY continues its fall, down nearly a big figure from its early Asia high
- Australia set to produce monthly CPI data
- BOJ says its buying more JGBs because upward pressure on yields threatened the upper limit
- Japan data - Retail sales for February -0.8% y/y (expected -0.3% y/y, prior 1.1%)
- New Zealand ANZ business survey for March: Business Confidence -41.9 (prior -51.8)
- BOJ says it'll increase its offer to buy JGBs today
- Forecasts for RBA rate hikes intensifying ... June, July and August now tipped
- UK data - BRC Shop Price Index for March +2.1% y/y (vs. prior 1.8%)
- Oil is trading higher
- Goldman Sachs update their G10 FX forecasts - EUR/USD to 1.20
- Citi have outlined 3 scenarios for the economy, markets ahead
- New Zealand Building Permits for February +10.5% m/m (prior -9.2%)
- Rally for equities, credit on Ukraine-Russia case-fire talks will not be sustained
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US 2/10 year spread moves closer to parity
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 30 March 2022
- Private oil survey data shows larger than expected headline draw in crude oil inventory
- Mr. Yen says if USD/JPY rises above 130 the BOJ should intervene, or raise interest rates!
USD/JPY was the big mover during the session here in Asia today. The early high was circa 123.20 and as I post this wrap its fallen under 121.85.
The Bank of Japan announced an extension of its extraordinary JGB purchase program (details in the bullets above) to tenures other than the 10yr and in greater amounts. The Bank of Japan is doing so as the yield on the 10yr threatens to rise above its targeted 25bp ceiling. For the (stronger) move for the yen though is the repatriation flows into yen as the end of the Japanese fiscal year approaches. I posted on these yesterday and the huge windfall gains for those bringing funds from offshore back to yen (repatriation and exporters).
A speech from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic sounded a cautionary note on Fed rate hikes to come. Bostic not jumping on the 50bp hike bandwagon if his remarks are anything to go by. He warned of the risk to demand from the wart in Ukraine and said (again) he supported 6 rate hikes this year. This was a factor weighing on the USD during the session, along with sentiment improvement that Russia is pulling back in Ukraine. EUR/USD has ticked slightly higher and is back above 1.1110 as I post. Cable, too, has firmed a few points.
AUD/USD is not a lot net changed. NZD/USD has also ticked higher. ANZ's business survey published today contianed further indications of rampant inflationary pressures in the country. RBNZ rate hikes remain on track.
On Tuesday evening (local time) we had the Australian Federal buidget. It was a pre-election budget and as such contains a number of spending goodies for the voters. More government stimulus into an already hot economy has triggered some calls from analyst for more Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes to come. Nomura is in the bullets above. Goldman Sachs alosupdated their RBA rate hike forecast. GS were looking for hikes in
September, October and November. Following the budget analysts at the bank have added in an August rate hike also.
