- Westpac forecast a 40bp cash rate hike from the RBA on June 7
- COVID-19: Beijing has shut around 10% of subway stations today
- FOMC previews - 50bps today then more, "sooner rather than later"
- Australian data - March Headline housing finance +0.9% m/m (expected -2.5%)
- Australian data - Retail sales March 1.6% (vs. expected 0.6%)
- Waiting on the CNY reference rate? Reminder - China is on holidays
- New Zealand – ANZ Commodity Price index for April -1.9% m/m (prior 3.9%)
- Goldman Sachs is forecasting the RBA cash rate at 2.6% by the end of 2022
- FOMC preview: 50bps & trimming the bs
- UK data shows that shop prices have risen at the fastest rate since 2011
- FOMC previews from down under
- Musk on his plans for Twitter - may charge commercial/government users
- RBNZ Governor Orr says can't rule out a global recession in the months ahead
- Australian Markit Services PMI for April 56.1 (prior 56.6) & Composite 55.9 (prior 56.2)
- New Zealand jobs report for Q1: Unemployment rate 3.2% (vs. 3.2% expected)
- Australian April Construction PMI 55.9 (vs. prior 56.5)
- China’s independent refiners start buying Russian oil at steep discounts
- Looming food shortages: Nigeria had to buy emergency supplies of Canadian potash in April
- FOMC preview: " A move other than a half percentage point hike would be a surprise"
- RBNZ says New Zealand financial system is resilient
- Oil: private survey of inventory shows larger than expected draw in headline crude stocks
- COVID-19: China's Labor Day holiday extended by a week for students, until May 11
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: JOLTS hit a new cycle high, euro pops and drops
- Major indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive day
It was a holiday in Japan, and China again, closing local markets and thinning out forex liquidity. There was little fresh market-relevant news of impact.
On the data front we had the Q1 employment report from New Zealand. The results confirmed a still tight New Zealand labour market (unemployment at 3.2% is a record low) and rising wages. There was nothing in the report to suggest the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not hike at its forthcoming meeting on May 25.
We had more Australian PMIs (for April) today, all still solidly in expansion. Housing finance data, also from Australia today, indicated demand is still present. This data was for March, perhaps the Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike yesterday will cool it in the months ahead. We’ll see.
From China, coronavirus related, we had news of schools to remain shut after the Labour Day holidays this week, for another week at least. Also that around 10% of the city’s subway network stations were closed today. These are not encouraging signs, but they fall well short of the sort of lockdowns we have seen in other COVID-19 hit cities in the country. So far at least.
The Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars have all added on points against the USD during the session, although the moves have not been large. Other majors were even more subdued.
Privately surveyed oil inventory data from the US showed a larger than expected draw. Oil is up a little, back over $103:
