- June US Empire Fed manufacturing survey -16.0 vs -5.5 expected
- Trump: I'm sure we can work something out with Canada
- Canada's LeBlanc says he's confident in progress on deal with US
- Pound shrugs off news that final UK-US trade deal near
- Netanyahu: Killing Iran's supreme leader would 'end the conflict'
- French and German and British foreign ministers to hold phone call with Iran minister
- U.S. Treasury auctions off 13 million of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.942%
- A new batch of missiles are being launched from Iran toward Israel
- Iran preparing for largest missile attack on Israel
- Israel bombed Iranian state TV
- Iran asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to ask US to press Israel to agree to a ceasefire
- Iran signals it wants to de-escalate hostilities - report
- Canada May housing starts 279.5K vs 245K expected
Markets:
- Gold down $48 to $3384
- US 10-year yields up 2.8 bps to 4.45%
- WTI crude oil down $1.67 to $71.31
- S&P 500 up 0.9%
- NZD leads, JPY lags
The US dollar staged an intraday comeback on Monday, though it's not clear what the catalyst was. Eyes are obviously on the Middle East and the broader strokes of market moves were positive for risk assets and negative for oil and gold. There was fear the US would get dragged into the war but that's now looking less likely, which is dollar positive.
That said, yields rose which is the opposite reaction you might expect in avoiding a costly war. The US budget bill was also getting some headlines as Republicans squabble over SALT deductions and other changes.
At the G7, Trump refused to sign any communiques but the market has never cared about a G7 statement so that was a non-event. Trump did speak with Canada's PM and the two appeared together and a later report said they had committed to working something out within 30 days. That's not quite the deal that many were hoping for but it still appears on track.
In terms of deals, the US and UK firmed up the one they announced last month. That was no surprise and didn't move the pound.
