- US March advance goods trade balance -161.99BB vs -147.85B prior
- US April consumer confidence 86.0 vs 87.5 expected
- JOLTS March job openings 7.192M vs 7.480M estimate
- US advanced wholesale inventories for March 0.5% versus 0.5% last month. Estimate 0.0%
- Lutnick: Tariff adjustments give automakers time to grow US plants
- Trump says he will focus on the economy
- Rubio: It's now time for Russia and Ukraine to submit concrete proposals
- USTR: Europe is not engaging well on tariff talks
- Lutnick: I have a deal with a country, I'm just waiting for foreign parliament to approve
- The market is now pricing in a full 125 bps in Fed easing in the next year
- Final Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 estimate -2.7% vs -2.4% prior
- Dallas Fed April service sector outlook index -19.4 vs -11.3 prior
- China waives ethane tariffs, as rumored last week
- US February Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +4.5% y/y vs +4.7% expected
- Bessent: We want a combo of long-term tariff revenue and lower barriers
- Goldman Sachs: Revising our USD/CAD forecasts lower
Markets:
- WTI crude oil down $1.79 to $60.26
- US 10-year yields down 4.6 bps to 4.665%
- Gold down $18 to $3322
- S&P 500 up 0.6%
- USD leads, AUD lags
The US dollar firmed on Tuesday in a move that looked like it was more about month end than fundamentals. Reports on the economy showed more softness creeping in and Fed pricing shifted dovishly.
Despite that, the US dollar climbed modestly across the board and particularly against the antipodeans. The market took some heart in auto tariffs being lowered though the details are still murky and the formula is complicated. On net though, the direction of tariffs continues to be down and White House officials said it was due to feedback from automakers, which is a sign that they're listening.
The oil market was beaten up again and WTI neared $60 but the loonie bucked the trend of US dollar buying in North American trade. That was likely fallout from the election, which turned out not to be anything of a market mover. Carney said he and Trump agreed to meet in person in the near future in what will surely be a challenging relationship.
The focus in the day ahead will be the first look at Q1 GDP in the US. Estimates moved down after today's trade data and that pushed up the probability of a negative reading, though the consensus still remains at +0.3%.
