- Russia halts turbine on Nord Stream pipeline, cutting supplies further
- It looks like it will be every European country for itself in the scramble for natural gas
- Dallas Fed July manufacturing index -22.6 vs -17.7 prior
- Chicago Fed June National Activity index -0.19 vs +0.01 prior
- The US treasury auctions off $45 billion of two-year notes at a high yield of 3.015%
- Weber's disastrous earnings highlight the precarious drop in household spending on goods
- Boris Johnson wants to remain after all
Markets:
- Gold down $8 to $1717
- US 10-year yields up 2.8 bps to 2.81%
- WTI crude oil up $2.03 to $96.74
- S&P 500 up 0.2%
- Nasdaq down 0.4%
- CAD leads, JPY lags
Newsflow was light ahead of this week's Fed decision and that generally meant quiet trade but there was a small bid in risk assets and selling in the yen. The Canadian dollar benefited from rising energy prices as natural gas has now nearly recouped the Freeport LNG fall.
Weighing on the euro was the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which further curved supplies to 33 mcm/d from 40 mcm/d or just 20% of capacity. That level will not allow Germany to meet it winter storage draws without significant demand curbs. It also adds to the growing belief (certainty?) that Russian excuses about turbines are a pretext, which is something German officials said after the news.
The euro gave up its gains after the news and the DAX lagged European indices.
Overall though, it was a largely shapeless day as we play the waiting game ahead of the Fed. There is some anxiety or hedges going on with 100 bps odds up to 13%.
There's some focus on corporate earnings as a big week cranks up.
