- US January retail sales 3.0% vs +1.8% expected
- Empire Manufacturing Index for February -5.8 versus -18 estimate
- ECB Lagarde: Although long term inflation expectations are near 2%,they warrant monitoring
- Austan Goolsbee could be on the fast track to Fed vice chair
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2.4% up from 2.1% last
- US Feb NAHB housing market index 42 vs 37
- Canada January home sales -3% m/m, prices down 15% from the peak
- SEC votes to shorten trading settlement to 1 business day
- Charlie Munger rips on crypto, bitcoin rallies 4%
- EIA weekly US oil inventories +16283K vs +1166K expected
- US December business inventories +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
- US January industrial production 0.0% vs +0.5% expected
- Canada Dec manufacturing sales -1.5% vs -1.8% expected
- Canada January housing starts 215.4K vs 240K expected
Markets:
- Gold down $16 to $18,376
- WTI crude oil down 46-cents to $78.60
- S&P 500 up 0.3% to 4147, Nasdaq up 0.9%
- US 10-year yields up 4 bps to 3.80%
- USD leads, GBP lags
There were some whispers about a hot retail sales report and the numbers certainly delivered but the market reaction in the FX market wasn't as strong as you might think. The dollar was higher at first but not dramatically and at day's end we're largely back to pre-data levels.
The market reaction shows that many were leaning towards a hot report on account of better weather and one-off effects like a boost in social security payments. The dollar had rallied strongly in Asia and Europe ahead of the numbers and still finished the day strong.
Treasury yields rose 4 bps led by the long end but Fed funds futures didn't move off a 5.24% peak.
