- FOMC minutes: Many saw holding rates for 'some time' after reaching sufficient level
- US September PPI +8.5% y/y vs +8.4% expected
- US EIA cuts estimates for US crude oil output
- ECB's Holzman says 75 bps followed by 50 bps would get them to neutral
- Bank of England accepts 2.3754 billion in daily gilt buyback operation
- BOE accepts nearly £2 billion in buyback of inflation-linked bonds
- Fed's Kashkari: There may be a housing downturn but not necessarily a crash
- ECB's Knot: We will need to go into restrictive territory
- Lagarde: Discussion on QT has started and will continue
- BOJ's Kuroda: If FX movement is so fast and unidirectional, it's probably speculation
Markets:
- Gold up $10 to $1674
- US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 3.90%
- WTI crude down $2.33 to $87.03
- S&P 500 down 12 points, or 0.3%, to 3576
- GBP leads, JPY lags
Yen weakness was the dominant theme of trading on Wednesday as traders play a game of chicken with the Bank of Japan. The warnings ramped up again today but there was no sign of action as the pair nears 147.00.
Cable made a dent in recent declines even as the gilt market came unwound. UK long-dated yields rose above the September highs that caused emergency moves. That was even as the BOE leaked the idea of continuing with purchases despite what Bailey said yesterday. At the same time, the market may be getting a sense that pensions finally have the upper-hand and that cash-raising is slowing. Large takedowns in the BOE operations may have helped as well.
In terms of data, the US dollar climbed on PPI and fell on the FOMC minutes. The PPI move didn't last and neither did the 20-pip hiccup on the Minutes, which were more two-sided than the strident Fed hawkishness.
Oil slumped badly but it didn't seem to affect either the loonie or oil equities, which is a strange one to square.
On net, this is a market that's counting the minutes to a pivotal CPI report.
