- ECB leaves key interest rates unchanged in March monetary policy meeting
- ECB lowers inflation forecasts
- ECB's Lagarde: Economy remains weak but surveys point to a pick-up this year
- Lagarde Q&A: We are more confident on inflation but not sufficiently confident
- Powell: If economy does as expected with think carefully cutting rates to begin this year
- Fed's Bowman: Jan inflation suggests inflation progress may be slower going forward
- US initial jobless claims 217 K versus 215K estimate
- US international trade for January -$67.4 billion versus $-63.5 billion
- Fed's Mester: If economy meets forecasts, rate cuts are likely later this year
- Fed's Mester: January inflation reports were a wake-up call
- US January consumer credit outstanding +19.49B vs +9.25B expected
- Household net worth rises to $156.2 trillion in Q4 2023
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 remains unchanged at 2.5%
- Preview: February non-farm payrolls by the numbers. Eyes on earnings
- Canada January trade balance +0.50B vs +0.10B expected
- Canada January building permits +13.5% vs +5.5% expected
- US Q4 unit labor costs +0.4% vs +0.6% expected
- USD/JPY extends fall and runs into test of key technical level
Markets:
- Gold up $10 to $2158
- US 10-year yields down 1.7 bps to 4.08%
- WTI crude oil down 23-cents to $78.90
- S&P 500 up 52 points or 1.0% to 5157, Nasdaq closes at record
- JPY leads, USD lags
The euro initially fell on lower ECB inflation forecasts but that move later reversed. A big part of that was general US dollar weakness but it was also because the ECB didn't offer any sign of a pivot. Lagarde said "we will know a little more in April but a lot more in June" on inflation and that indicated that April isn't really in play. Ultimately, the euro rose 75 pips from the US lows.
The big mover on the day was the yen on strong wage growth indications from Japan's largest union combined with something of a leak saying the Japanese government wouldn't mind higher rates. The market is pricing in about a 40% chance of a hike at the March BOJ but I'd peg that higher. Others are more reluctant because the BOJ has had some fake leaks and signals under Ueda.
Cable scored a strong day alongside the Aussie and kiwi. Global growth is looking resilient and there was some USD selling on worries about a weak jobs report tomorrow. The stock market is on an absolute heater with NVDA legging even higher today. Can we keep it going into the weekend?
