- US initial jobless claims 215K vs. 215K estimate
- US Q1 GDP (second reading) -1.5% vs -1.3% expected
- Canada March retail sales 0.0% vs +1.4% expected
- Canada average weekly earnings for March 4.3% vs. 2.37% last month
- US April pending home sales -3.9% vs -2.0% m/m expected
- OPEC+ will maintain its production schedule next week, according to a report
- KC Fed manufacturing index +19 vs +28 prior
- Fed's Brainard: I see potential for a complementary digital dollar
- US treasury auctions off $42 billion of 7 year notes at a high yield of 2.777%
Markets:
- Gold down $1 to $1852
- WTI crude oil up $3.66 to $113.98
- US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 2.75%
- S&P 500 up 87 points to 4065
- EUR leads, NZD lags
The general mood was risk positive today but didn't play out entirely how you might expect. There were big rallies in stocks and oil but it didn't filter through to risk FX. The NZD lagging is indicative of that but the overall picture was sluggish. Maybe that's the pending US weekend and maybe that's uncertainty about who is going to be raising interest rates and how much. The message in the bond market was similar as yields tried higher and lower but ultimately finished in the middle and generally unchanged.
Crypto sent a concerning signal as well. ETH fell badly in Europe and is is still down nearly 7% despite a big bounce. BTC fell as well but not nearly as much, still it's down 1.3% on a day when the Nasdaq is up almost 3%.
In terms of FX moves in North American trading, it was largely shapeless. GBP grinded higher as it continues to track stocks but only to 1.2600 from 1.2560. It didn't managed to test the European high of 1.2620.
The only move out of the daily range was in CAD as oil caught a bid once again. WTI hit a one-week high of $114.83. Note that natural gas reversed to finish lower after hitting a 14-year high early.
Monday is a US holiday so Friday's trade could be sapped but we are getting Tokyo May CPI today and that's a big one.
