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- The staff's economic outlook was largely unchanged from the one provided at the December meeting.
- The vast majority of participants judged risks to dual mandate objectives were roughly in balance.
- Most participants want to see "further progress on inflation" before making additional rate adjustments
- Committee sees risks to employment and inflation goals as "roughly balanced" though a couple members saw greater inflation risks
- Economic growth described as expanding at a "solid pace" with labor market conditions "remaining solid"
- Many participants said after the conclusion of the balance sheet runoff, it would be appropriate to structure asset purchases to move maturity composition closer to the outstanding stock of Treasury debt.
- Survey respondents saw the balance sheet runoff process concluding by mid-2025, slightly later than previously expected.
The tone of the Minutes is more balanced and neutral than Fed commentary, which still indicates a strong dovish bias. The market is 50/50 on a cut in June and has priced in 42 bps in easing this year.
Market moves on the Minutes were near nil.
I think this captured it:
"In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants observed that the Committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, with the vast majority pointing to a still-restrictive policy stance."
