- Official data so far reveals only modest impact of tariffs on prices, activity, labor market.
- If the Fed cuts in September and tariff effect shows up later, could pause rate cuts.
- Inflation boost is likely coming, but actual inflation indicates renewed progress towards 2% target.
- More time is needed to determine if effects of trade war are delayed, or if it will be smaller than thought.
- Emphasis must be on actual inflation, real economic data without committing to an easing policy path in case tariff effects delayed.
There's nothing new here from Kashkari. He's been on this camp for a while.
Fed's Kashkari
