The testimony is over at 1:04 PM.
What was the market impact from the start to the finish?
- S&P index up 25.91 points at 4332.18. Trades at 4390.78, up $68.30
- Gold down $12.60 at $1932.07. Trades at $1918.17, down $13.90
- crude oil up $2.27 at 108.60. Trades at $108.46, down $0.14
- bitcoin and $44,199. Trades at $43894, down $205.
- two year yield or 1.44%. Trades at 1.492%, up 5.2 basis points
- 10 year yield at 1.794%. Trades at 1.839%, up 4.5 basis points
- EURUSD at 1.1083. Trades that 1.1101, up 18 pips..
- GBPUSD at 1.3331. Trades at 1.3359, up 20 pips.
- USDJPY at 115.41. Trades at 115.60, up 19 pips
- USDCHF at 0.9216. Trades at 0.9222, up 6pips.
- USDCAD at 1.2697. Trades at 1.2666.
- AUDUSD at 0.7263. Trades at 0.7286, up 23 pips, down 33 pips.
- NZDUSD and 0.6762. Trades at 0.6780, up 18 pips.
Highlights of the Fed Chair comments
- US economy is very strong. Labor market is extremely tight
- I do think still appropriate toraise interest rates by 25 basis pointsin March
- Fed will not finalize balance sheet plan at this meeting.
- If inflation/growth persists,we would be prepared to move more aggressively with a 50 basis point riseat a meeting or meetings
- Fed needs to be nimble in light of the war in Ukraine.
- Inflation is different as coming from goods sector.
- Main focus Fed has is conducting policy to return US to price stability while preserving the expansion
- Fed is humble about fact it cannot call with confidence a turn in inflation
- There would be no direct effects on the US economy from Russian sanctions
- Price of oil depends on where Ukraine war goes
- On the balance sheet, it would take something in the range of three years to get to where we want to get to.
- After we set balance sheet reduction course, we may speed up or slow down, but something in the range of three years.
- I expect the Fed funds rate to go up in two weeks, and a series of hikes this year, but given Ukrainian situation we will proceed carefully.
- Neutral rate is somewhere between 2% and 2 1/2%
- We talk about getting to neutral rate of 2% to 2 1/2%, and it may need to go higher than that
- Monetary policy works through expectations, rate hikes have already happened in effect and we have to ratify them
- The increases in housing will be much smaller and largely a function of supply and demand.
- As we raise interest rates, mortgages will go up and prices will go up more slowly and demand will decline
