Miran is speaking soon. He is a political appointee and a motivated speaker for rate cuts. His views are irrelevant and he is ignored by sober members of the FOMC.
Chinese trade data the focus otherwise today. China’s export momentum is expected to have eased in March as the boost from AI-driven demand runs into the headwinds of rising geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. A Reuters poll forecasts exports grew 8.6% year-on-year in dollar terms, a sharp slowdown from the 21.8% surge seen across January and February.
The month represents an early test of whether strong demand for AI-related goods, such as semiconductors and servers, can offset the drag from the global energy shock following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows. While China entered 2026 with export strength that raised expectations of surpassing last year’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, the war has cast doubt on that trajectory.
Higher fuel and transport costs are eroding global purchasing power, affecting demand for Chinese goods. However, some analysts suggest Chinese exporters could remain competitive as buyers shift toward lower-cost suppliers. Long-standing stockpiling of commodities may also help cushion input cost pressures.
Forecasts for March exports vary widely, with some projecting strong growth near 20% and others expecting a much softer outcome closer to 3%. A high comparison base from last year—when exporters rushed shipments ahead of U.S. tariff changes—may also weigh on the data.
Imports are expected to rise 11.2%, down from earlier gains, while the trade surplus is seen narrowing to $108 billion. Meanwhile, strong semiconductor demand continues to signal resilience in tech-linked trade flows despite broader uncertainty.
