China is set to publish a fresh round of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data later today, Wednesday, December 31, offering another timely snapshot of economic momentum at the end of a difficult year for the world’s second-largest economy.
China publishes two main PMI surveys, each capturing different parts of the industrial landscape. The official PMI is compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics and focuses primarily on large, state-owned and government-linked enterprises. Alongside this, the private-sector PMI, produced by S&P Global / RatingDog, places greater emphasis on small and medium-sized enterprises, making it a closely watched gauge of conditions in China’s private economy.
The distinction matters. While the official PMI tends to reflect conditions among larger firms with better access to credit and policy support, the private-sector survey is often seen as more sensitive to shifts in domestic demand, pricing power and employment conditions. Methodological differences also play a role, with the Caixin/RatingDog survey drawing from a broader and more diverse sample of companies. Despite these contrasts, the two PMIs often move in the same direction, offering complementary signals on the health of China’s manufacturing sector.
Today’s release includes the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, alongside the private-sector manufacturing PMI. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect China’s official manufacturing PMI to remain at 49.2 in December, unchanged from November and firmly below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. If confirmed, it would mark a ninth consecutive month of contraction in factory activity.
Persistent weakness reflects a combination of subdued domestic demand, falling industrial profits and ongoing uncertainty around global trade. Chinese manufacturers continue to face the lingering effects of high U.S. tariffs, even as they attempt to diversify export markets. A broader global slowdown has also weighed on orders, complicating Beijing’s efforts to rebalance the economy away from heavy reliance on exports and investment.
Separate data released over the weekend showed China's industrial profits falling 13.1% year-on-year in November, the sharpest decline in more than a year, underlining the pressure on the manufacturing sector. Against that backdrop, analysts expect the private-sector PMI to edge down to 49.8 from 49.9 previously, remaining in contractionary territory.
Taken together, today’s PMI readings are likely to reinforce expectations for further policy support in 2026, as Chinese authorities seek to stabilise growth, shore up confidence and arrest the slide in industrial activity heading into the new year.
Markets are likely to view another sub-50 PMI print as reinforcing the narrative of persistent slack in China’s industrial cycle, with limited immediate upside for risk assets. Chinese equities and broader Asia-Pacific markets may struggle to find traction, while base metals could remain capped on concerns around weak end-demand. In FX, the data should keep the yuan biased to the downside at the margin, particularly if the private-sector PMI confirms ongoing stress among smaller firms. From a policy perspective, soft PMIs strengthen expectations for additional targeted stimulus in early 2026, including fiscal support and incremental monetary easing, which may limit downside risk over the medium term. For global markets, weak China data is likely to reinforce disinflationary impulses, supporting bonds and keeping a lid on global yields, while offering modest support to the US dollar against cyclical and commodity-linked currencies.
