It's a near empty economic calendar today. I was expecting the People's Bank of China to set its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) yesterday but I was out by 24 hours. Its today.
Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding at 3.00% and the 5-year at 3.50%. Economists argue that commercial lenders are already grappling with historically thin net interest margins, meaning any further trimming of the LPR could squeeze bank profitability even further.
The Bank setting its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs), this used to a big deal, very highly anticipated, but not any more. China's main policy rate is now the reverse repo rate, currently at 1.4% for the 7-day. The 7-day rate serves as a key policy benchmark, influencing other lending rates like the Loan Prime Rates (LPRs). The PBOC uses reverse repo open market operations to inject or absorb funds, influencing interbank lending rates.
The LPR setting in January left the 5 year at 3.50% (vs. expected 3.50% and prior 3.5%) and the 1 year at 3.00% (vs. exp. 3.0% and prior 3.0%). With no change expected for either again today, this will mark the ninth consecutive month without a change.
A look back at the past changes in the LPR, since early 2022:
| Date | One-year LPR | Five-year LPR | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 3.00% | 3.50% | -10bp | Latest cut; both 1Y and 5Y trimmed. |
| Feb 2024 | 3.45% | 3.95% | -25bp (5Y only) | Big mortgage-linked cut aimed at property sector support. |
| Aug 2023 | 3.45% | 4.20% | -10bp (1Y), -15bp (5Y) | Coordinated easing to counter weak growth. |
| Jun 2023 | 3.55% | 4.20% | -10bp (1Y), -10bp (5Y) | First LPR cut since Aug 2022. |
| Aug 2022 | 3.65% | 4.30% | -5bp (1Y), -15bp (5Y) | Targeted mortgage support. |
| Jan 2022 | 3.70% | 4.60% | -10bp (1Y), -5bp (5Y) | Part of early 2022 easing cycle. |
