• Worst case scenarios are materialising.
• Tariffs are triggering a very significant negative shock on economic activity.
• US policies could bring into question the dollar's status as a reserve currency and safe haven.
• The precise fallout from tariffs is still uncertain and we are monitoring it closely.
• The impact on inflation will depend, among other factors, on trade retaliation and possibly on more expansionary fiscal policy.
• Suggested that the euro could emerge as as a more attractive alternative to the us dollar.