ECB rate hike bets continue to evaporate on the week

  • Money markets now price in less than 15 bps worth of rate hikes by December

That compares to the 35 bps worth of rate hikes that were priced in late last week. Of note, even the pricing for a full 10 bps move in October has withered. Mind you, the pricing last week showed the timing for the first rate hike to be for June.

The Russia-Ukraine situation has certainly thrown a curveball to the outlook and while the ECB may still look to act earlier to counteract inflation pressures, I reckon markets won't be comfortable until they send a clearer message on that front.

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