We're expecting the ECB's meeting minutes a bit later in the session, here is a quick wrap of the most important points from the meeting:
- ECB maintained interest rates unchanged, focusing on achieving its inflation target.
- Guidance reiterated: interest rates to remain high as needed.
- No hints at policy normalization discussions, contrary to some expectations.
- 2024 and 2025 inflation forecasts reduced, with 2025 expected to hit the 2% target.
- 2024 growth projection lowered to 0.6% from 0.8%; 2025 growth forecast remains at 1.5%.
- ECB President Lagarde expressed the bank is not yet fully confident about meeting its inflation target.
- Future policy direction to become clearer in April and significantly more so in June.
- Governing Council unanimously decided against discussing rate cuts now but started talks on reducing restrictive policies, not waiting to reach the 2% inflation target before cutting rates.
- Reports indicate a strong preference among policymakers for a rate cut in June, with further discussions on a potential second cut in July to persuade a minority advocating for an earlier start.
As always it's important to remember that the minutes are usually stale since we have a ton of ECB speakers all voicing their opinions after the meeting. That means it's unlikely we learn anything new, but we need to be ready in case we do.
