- 73 of 75 economists predict a 25 bps rate cut for December
- The remaining 2 economists predict a 50 bps rate cut instead
- 51 of 67 economists expected deposit rate to be at 2% or lower by the end of 2025
For some context, the current deposit rate is at 3.25%. So, to expect rates of at least 2% or lower means that majority of the economists polled are expecting the ECB to cut rates by at least four times next year. Looking out to June next year, markets are pricing in ~134 bps of rate cuts already (including the upcoming December decision).
From the poll:
