So much for 'drill, baby, drill'.
The EIA now forecasts that US 2026 oil production will be lower than 2025.
- 2025 forecast of 13.42 mbpd steady
- 2026 cut to 13.37 mbpd from 13.49 previously
- 2025 demand at 20.4 mbpd vs 20.5 prior
- Natural gas demand steady at 91.3 bcf/day
- 2025 world oil demand at 103.5 vs 103.7 mbpd
- 2026 world oil demand steady at 104.6 bmpd
There is nothing magical about these forecasts and these aren't big swings, despite recent declines in oil prices.
Notably, the EIA has global oil demand at 102.60mbpd, global oil supply at 104.24mbpd in May 2025, which might explain why prices have recovered so well.
From the EIA:
"We forecast US crude oil production will decline from an all-time high of 13.5 MMbpd in 2Q25 to ~13.3 MMbpd by 4Q26 because of decreasing active drilling rigs and declining oil prices. Last month, active rigs decreased by much more than we had expected"
