Deutsche Bank has lifted its 2026 gold forecast to an average of $4,000 an ounce, citing continued central bank buying, led by China, and the impact of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- The new projection is up from the bank’s prior $3,700 call and reflects expectations that bullion’s premium to fair-value models will persist.
- Precious metals analyst Michael Hsueh said further upside is more likely than a correction, with central bank purchases potentially reaching 900 tons next year.
- Hsueh added that risks skew gold-bullish if the Fed’s independence is questioned, though Deutsche’s forecast does not formally include that scenario.
- The bank expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in 2026 after three cuts this year, though Trump’s tighter immigration policy could restrict labour supply and strengthen the case for more easing.
- Deutsche Bank also raised its 2026 silver forecast to an average of $45 an ounce, up from $40, with the market set for a fifth straight year of physical deficits.
