A win is a win but I don't think Republicans will be celebrating too hard tonight in Washington.
This was a seat that Trump and the prior Republican House member won by more than 20 points. Right now, the NYT is predicting a 6.7 point victory, which has been enlarging from around 3 points early in the night.
Prediction markets are clustered around the 3-9% range now.
Overall, I would say this is about what was expected at the start of the night but if you're a Republican who was within 5 points in the general 2024 election, it might be time to worry as this is looking like a +10 swing to Democrats. Now maybe you handicap that by half because this is a special election but that's not a great sign and Trump's approval rating is near the lowest ever.
