David Rosenberg was interviewed on CNBC. He thinks the US is headed for recession. He cites fiscal stimulus turning into fiscal drag:
- "Fiscal policy last year added more than 4 percentage points to nominal GDP growth which was just over 6%, so two-thirds of the growth last year in the economy came from the juice from fiscal policy and that acted as a huge antidote to what the Fed was doing,"
- He expects 2024 to see "fiscal drag" that will reduce economic growth by 1.2 percentage points.
- Rosenberg also cited the ongoing lagged effects of the Fed's tightening already for his expectation of a recession
