The main points:
- Citi revise global oil inventories to be tighter in Q1 than expected because of combination of stronger demand & weaker supply
- oil balances appear to be shifting to strong builds of 1.2-mb/d in Q2, 2.2-mb/d in Q3, & over 3-mb/d in Q4
- revise their oil price outlook upwards in 2022:
- Q1 2022 up $12 to $91
- but maintain downward trajectory for prices through the year to reach $60s by year-end
- expect a very well supplied oil market to emerge by 2h’22, if not 2q’22. this should blunt prices even with ongoing geopolitical risks
