CitiFx on EUR/USD, this comes via the folks at Trading View (may be gated)
In summary:
- expects EURUSD to trade in a range of 1.07-1.12, having previously argued for EURUSD rising closer to 1.15 last November
Citing:
- considers the ECB underpriced
- sees further euro zone terms-of-trade improvement due to natural gas price declines
- not enough to offset China growth concerns - April data the most recent disappointment, specifically the contraction y/y in imports .... this has increased the risk that euro zone exports to China will either stall or rise at a very slow pace
Citi says it'll get more enthusiastic on EUR (to 1.15) if "US-RoW (rest of the world) growth expectations differential resumes declining, potentially due to China firing up stimulus"
